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Episode 1444: Ball Don't Lie
Date October 17, 2019 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller discuss the Nationals’ sweep of the Cardinals, why the Nationals are good and fun, Stephen Strasburg and the history of no. 1 draft pick pitchers, Gerrit Cole’s performance in ALCS Game 3, how Wednesday’s rainout affects the Yankees and Astros, and the Angels’ opioid problem and hiring of Joe Maddon as manager. Then (36:22) they talk to writer and researcher Rob Arthur about the de-juiced postseason ball, how we can tell that the ball is behaving differently, how much balls vary from pitch to pitch and game to game, how the ball affects pitches, why the ball change reflects poorly on MLB, whether the change was intentional or unintentional, and what offense might look like in 2020. Topics * Nationals sweep of the Cardinals * Nationals' rotation * Fun players and storylines from the Nationals * Should the best playoff team get to choose their opponent? * History of number one pitching draft picks * Is Stephen Strasburg one of the decade's top five pitchers? * Gerrit Cole and ALCS game 3 * Impact of game 4 rainout on ALCS * Joe Maddon hiring by the Angels * Tyler Skaggs and opioid usage in MLB * Interview with Rob Arthur on the de-juiced ball * Measuring drag and the impact on the ball * Differentiation between batches of baseballs * How MLB could control drag on the ball * Which batted balls are impacted most? * Was the postseason ball change intentional? * Predicting offense in the 2020 season based on ball changes * Debunking the myth that shadows on the field impact offense Intro Guided by Voices, "Calling Up Washington" Interstitial Gillian Welch, "Wrecking Ball" Outro Sharon Jones & The Dap-Kings, "Rumors" Notes * Sam notes that since the late 1980s (drafting of Ken Griffey Jr. in 1987) MLB teams have been much better at drafting position players but only recently have been better at drafting pitchers. * Allowing the top seed to choose their opponent had been discussed earlier in Episode 720 and Episode 1229. * David Price is currently by WAR the greatest pitcher who was a number one pick, but both Stephen Strasburg and Gerrit Cole are likely to pass him. * The Astros have won sixteen consecutive games started by Gerrit Cole. * Rob explains that the drag on the baseball is measured by comparing the velocity readings of the ball when it is released from the pitcher's hand and when it arrives at home. * Ball to ball variation in the drag coefficient has dropped, but within each larger batch (season-long) of balls there is more variation. * Sam suggests that prior to the start of each game MLB could test the balls and release a report on the expected conditions for the game. * The consistency with increased drag has convinced Rob that the balls used for this postseason are new and not from an older batch. He hypothesizes that MLB is unaware of what is causing the difference to the ball, or at the very least that the change was not intentional. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1444: Ball Don't Lie * Los Angeles Angels employee details team's knowledge of Tyler Skaggs' drug use to federal DEA investigators by T.J. Quinn * Talks are underway to implement opioid testing in Major League Baseball this offseason by Evan Drellich * The Rocket Ball Has Disappeared In October by Robert Arthur * MLB Says It Didn't De-juice the Ball. So Where Have All the Homers Gone? by Ben Lindbergh * Dead ball? Juiced ball? The debate unfortunately rages on by Jeff Passan * Could the Dejuiced Baseball Send MLB Into Another Dead-Ball Era? by Michael Baumann * Is the New Baseball Affecting How Pitches Break Too? by Robert Arthur * Do shadows Affect Postseason Play? by Gerald Schifman * Play Loud and Carry a Big Stick by Ben Lindbergh Category:Episodes Category:Guest Episodes